Chest
Volume 126, Issue 2, August 2004, Pages 412-419
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Clinical Investigations
CYSTIC FIBROSIS
Lung Function Decline in Cystic Fibrosis Patients and Timing for Lung Transplantation Referral

https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.126.2.412Get rights and content

Study objectives:

To determine risk factors associated with an accelerated decline in lung function in cystic fibrosis (CF), and whether longitudinal changes in FEV1 would be a better predictor of the need for referral for lung transplantation than any single value for FEV1.

Design:

The rate of decline in pulmonary function was determined by standard linear regression from each patient's calendar year's best percentage of predicted FEV1 (%FEV1) over at least 4 years, and patients were classified into three cohorts based on their rate of decline. Differences between groups in age, weight-for-age z score, gender, genotype, pancreatic status, diabetes, and the presence of various lung microbial isolates were analyzed. A subset of 30 patients referred for lung transplantation were further analyzed, and a prediction model for lung transplantation referral was created using the patient's rate of decline in lung function, the mean waiting time for donor organs, and the average level of lung function of patients prior to lung transplantation.

Patients:

One hundred fifty-three patients with CF followed up at the Washington University Adult Cystic Fibrosis Center.

Results:

Younger age, malnutrition, and concurrent infection with both Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus were significant (p < 0.05) risk factors for rapidly declining lung function. Among patients with rapidly declining lung function, referral for lung transplantation would have occurred 8.4 months earlier than actual referral age (p < 0.05) if the prediction model had been used, possibly resulting in additional patient salvage in several cases.

Conclusions:

Rate of decline in lung function should be routinely evaluated in patients with CF, and a prediction model utilizing the rate of decline in %FEV1, and the median regional waiting period for donor lungs for patients with CF may assist in the timing of referral for lung transplantation and more rapidly declining lung function.

Section snippets

Methods and Materials

We evaluated the medical records of all 174 patients with CF followed up at the Washington University Adult Cystic Fibrosis Center between 1995 and 2002 for whom pulmonary function data spanning at least 4 years were available (n = 153). Longitudinal trends in FEV1 were evaluated using the percentage of predicted FEV1 (%FEV1). Percentage of predicted values were calculated from the equations of Knudson et al.4 The best %FEV1 of each calendar year, as suggested by others,5 was used in a

Results

The mean rate of decline in %FEV1 for all patients was – 3.89 ± 4.11%/yr. This number is similar to results of similar analyses by others.1112131415 The distribution is shown in Figure 1.

Since 2 SEs about the mean defines the 95% confidence limits for the true mean, patients with rates of decline greater or less than these limits are not likely to have an “average” rate of decline in pulmonary function. The rate of decline was greater than the above overall group mean + 2 SE in 54 patients

Discussion

While a decline in lung function is typical of almost all patients with CF, the rate of decline is highly variable. In addition, Menendez et al16 noted different patterns of decline, which they characterized as early linear decline, no change, no change followed by linear decline, or no distinguishable pattern. In the current study, the overall rate of decline in lung function in our adult patients was similar to that published in other series.1112131415 Moreover, we also observed patterns of

Conclusions

The rate of decline in lung function (using the year's best %FEV1) should be routinely evaluated in patients with CF. This analysis can be easily performed by any caregiver for any patient with the use of commonly available spreadsheet applications. Patients with CF should be referred for transplantation at a time when based on their rate of decline in lung function, the expected time for their %FEV1 to reach 20% equals the average local waiting time for donor lungs, or when the baseline %FEV1

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Supported in part by a grant from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation.

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